The Minnesota Twins suffered another crushing defeat at Progressive Field, relinquishing a three-run lead to fall 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. Griffin Jax gave up a devastating game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning. This loss marks their 18th in their last 27 games, a crippling statistic for a team clinging to hope in the playoff race.
Despite currently holding the third AL wild-card spot, the Twins' once-comfortable lead has dwindled to a precarious 1 1/2 games. The pressure is mounting. FanGraphs had pegged the Twins' postseason odds at 95.4% as of September 5. That number has now contracted to 76.4%, reflecting their recent struggles on the field.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," lamented Pablo López, articulating the growing sense of urgency within the clubhouse.
Offensive Woes
The Twins' offensive performance has seen significant decline, scoring more than three runs in only 12 of their last 27 games. They are batting .236 across that span, with a lackluster .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage. These figures are emblematic of a team struggling to find consistency at the plate.
"If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," emphasized manager Rocco Baldelli. "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
The data underscores Baldelli's concerns. When the bases are empty, the Twins are hitting just .272, placing them among the bottom four teams in this scenario. This inefficiency has often led to their downfall in tight games.
It's not all doom and gloom, however. Max Kepler's expected return offers a glimmer of hope for a team desperately in need of offensive firepower.
Pitching Struggles
The bullpen, once a reliable asset with a 3.84 ERA and ranked tenth in win probability added (plus-3.41) through their first 123 games, has since faltered. In the recent stretch of 27 games, the bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, and they have posted a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
"It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff," admitted Griffin Jax, reflecting the fatigue that has set in after playing 17 games in the last 18 days.
The rotation has not fared any better. Over the last 27 games, they have posted a 6.07 ERA, averaging just 4.38 innings per start, further amplifying the bullpen’s workload. In five of their last 18 losses, the Twins had the lead in the seventh inning or later, and were tied in two other games at the same point, only to see the bullpen falter.
Roster Moves and Rivals
In a bid to bolster their pitching staff, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances.
"We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help," explained Derek Falvey, the Twins' President of Baseball Operations.
The Twins' immediate threats in the standings are the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, both trailing by just two games. Crucially, the Twins hold tiebreakers over both teams, yet the Tigers’ recent form, going 23-10 in their last 33 games, stokes further anxiety for Minnesota.
On a positive note, Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life with the bat, combining for 5 hits in 15 at-bats, including two doubles and a homer, this month.
As the season reaches its climax, the Twins find themselves at a crossroads. They must find consistency both offensively and from their pitching staff to keep their playoff hopes alive. Baldelli's challenge will be to rally his team to perform at their best, with no margin for error left. "We have to put nine innings together," he reiterated, aware of the thin line they tread between making and missing the postseason.