A successful fantasy basketball team hinges not only on high-profile, top draft picks but also demands a blend of strategy, deep knowledge, and a willingness to take calculated risks. Consistent production from key players, particularly those drafted beyond the initial rounds, is crucial for securing a championship.
High Stakes with High Performers
Joel Embiid stands out as a prime example of a high-risk, high-reward player. Projected to average over 60 fantasy points per game this season, Embiid’s potential is undeniable, having averaged 61 fantasy points per game last season. However, fantasy managers need to proceed with caution. Embiid has a history of unreliability due to injuries, having never played more than 68 games in a season and featuring in only 39 games last year.
On the flip side, Nikola Jokic represents stability. Jokic played 79 games last season and has never played fewer than 69 games in any season throughout his career. His durability and consistent production make him a cornerstone for any fantasy roster.
The Aging Legends
Veteran players like LeBron James and Kevin Durant still offer considerable value but come with their own sets of concerns. LeBron, approaching his 40th birthday, played 71 games last season, a significant improvement over his average of 52 games over the previous three seasons. Meanwhile, his teammate Anthony Davis played 76 games, although historically, he averaged just 44 games in the three seasons before last year.
Durant, entering his 18th NBA season at 36 years old, managed to play 75 games last season, showcasing impressive longevity. However, fantasy managers should remain cautious, as his advancing age poses inherent injury risks.
The Enigmatic Stars
Players like Ja Morant, Kyrie Irving, and Zion Williamson offer explosive potential but carry significant uncertainty. Morant, despite missing 73 games due to suspension and injury, has demonstrated outstanding performance with averages of 26.7 points per game (PPG), 7.5 assists per game (APG), and 5.8 rebounds per game (RPG) over the past three seasons. Now 25 years old, Morant's ability to stay on the court could significantly bolster any fantasy lineup.
Irving remains one of the most skilled guards in the league, averaging 26.7 PPG over his last five seasons with a shooting percentage of 49.3% from the field, 39.9% from beyond the arc, and 91.2% from the free-throw line. Yet, his availability is a major drawback, having averaged just 44.2 games per season over the same period. Last season, Irving ranked 22nd in fantasy points per game but only 47th in total fantasy points, underscoring the impact of his frequent absences.
Zion Williamson's performance has been similarly tantalizing yet frustrating. He has played in just 90 of a possible 236 regular season games over the past three years. However, when healthy, Williamson has been a force, averaging 26.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG, and 4.0 APG during that span. His career-high of 70 games last season included a prolific end to the season, where he averaged 27.1 PPG over a 10-game stretch.
Player Reliability
Dependable player attendance is essential in fantasy basketball, where unpredictable injuries and inconsistent play can derail a season. Kawhi Leonard exemplifies this dilemma. Despite having finished with the 27th-most fantasy points in the league last season, Leonard's recent history is concerning. Last season, he featured in 68 games but missed 12 of the Clippers' last 14, including crucial playoff games, due to knee issues.
Building a balanced fantasy basketball team involves more than banking on superstar performances. Managers must weigh the reliability against the potential to maximize their squad's output. With each season, player dynamics and league trends evolve, and successful fantasy managers are those who can adeptly navigate these changes, making shrewd decisions that blend risk with reliability.