As the 2024 NFL season races towards its final stages, the scramble for the coveted No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft is intensifying among teams grappling with challenging records. At the forefront of this battle are the New York Giants and the Las Vegas Raiders, both struggling under the weight of a 2-12 record. Each franchise is grappling with the pressing need for a franchise quarterback, setting the stage for a high-stakes conclusion to their respective seasons.
A History of Top Picks
The Giants and the Raiders have their eyes firmly set on potential game-changers like Shedeur Sanders from Colorado Buffaloes and Cam Ward from Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Historically, the Giants have had the No. 1 pick twice, selecting Kyle Rote in 1951 and Tucker Frederickson in 1965. Meanwhile, the Raiders have not held the top pick since they drafted JaMarcus Russell in 2007, a selection that didn’t pan out as hoped.
Struggles in the Rearview
Enduring arduous seasons, the Giants are amid a disheartening nine-game losing streak. Their upcoming fixtures against teams such as the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles, and Indianapolis Colts provide an opportunity, albeit a challenging one, to break their slump. Their season trajectory has been destabilized with quarterback changes, possibly seeing Tim Boyle stepping in due to injuries sidelining Tommy DeVito and Drew Lock.
The Raiders’ situation hasn’t been much rosier. After a steady 2-2 start, they’ve slipped into a daunting ten-game losing streak. Their remaining contests against the Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, and Los Angeles Chargers represent their final hurdles. With Desmond Ridder likely continuing as the Raiders’ quarterback, and Aidan O’Connell possibly sidelined due to a knee injury, the Raiders are looking for a break in their recent misfortune.
Chasing Hope: Other Teams in the Mix
Beyond the two main contenders, five other teams are lurking with faint hopes of claiming the top draft selection. The New England Patriots, Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans all hold precarious 3-11 records, hovering close in the race for drafting supremacy. Each team faces challenging final matches that could decisively tilt their season outcomes.
For instance, the Patriots are set to tackle the Buffalo Bills twice and the Chargers once, a tough lineup that could define their season’s narrative. Meanwhile, the Browns face crucial games against formidable opponents like the Cincinnati Bengals, Baltimore Ravens, and Miami Dolphins. Their strategic move to start Dorian Thompson-Robinson against Cincinnati, with Jameis Winston benched, indicates the Browns’ earnest attempt to mix up their tactics in these crucial final weeks.
Simulation Insights
Looking at stats and probabilities provided by simulation models, the Giants have a promising 38.6% chance of landing the No. 1 pick, although predictions suggest they might close the season with three wins. On the other hand, the Raiders hold a 20.31% chance according to these models, also predicted to potentially end with three victories.
Meanwhile, the Browns’ analytical positioning weighs in with a 13.32% chance, signaling that their path to clinching the top selection is mathematically possible but requires a turn of fortune in their final engagements.
The Ultimate Prize
The unfolding drama of these final games is not just about wins and losses, but the tantalizing prospect of reshaping the futures of these storied franchises with a new marquee quarterback. As this gripping chapter of the NFL draws to a close, fans and analysts alike eagerly watch to see which team secures the top draft pick, and with it, perhaps the franchise cornerstone they’ve long been searching for.